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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 31?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 31?

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

97%YES
4%NO

Volume 24h

$24K

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

97% / 97%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+1.6pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Event Distribution

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 31?

March

Full event →
above $1,600 on March 31?
100%
above $1,700 on March 31?
100%
above $1,900 on March 31?
97%
above $2,000 on March 31?
67%
above $2,100 on March 31?
10%
above $2,200 on March 31?
1%
above $2,300 on March 31?
0%
above $2,600 on March 31?
0%
above $2,500 on March 31?
0%

9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+1.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

96% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

97% YES (-1.2pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 97%99%
Buy YES@ 97¢
Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly14.3%
½ Kelly7.1%
Buy NO@ 4¢

-14.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 14.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 31?" at 97% YES / 3% NO. In the last 24 hours, $24K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 97%, NO 3%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1705515

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.