Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 31?

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 31?

Data as of Mar 30, 2026, 11:45 PM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

66%YES

34%NO

Volume 24h

$9K

Liquidity

$21K

Bid / Ask

66% / 68%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

79%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+6.7pp

confidence40%

methodbayesian

Event Distribution

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 31?

March

Full event →

above $1,600 on March 31?

100%

above $1,700 on March 31?

100%

above $1,900 on March 31?

97%

above $2,000 on March 31?

67%

above $2,100 on March 31?

10%

above $2,200 on March 31?

above $2,300 on March 31?

above $2,600 on March 31?

above $2,500 on March 31?

9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

65% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Biggest move: -11.0pp

75% → 64%

Mar 30, 2026

Peak probability

75% YES — highest in period

Mar 30, 2026

Current

64% YES (-11.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 66%99%

Buy YES@ 66¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 34¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 31?" at 66% YES / 34% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 79%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 66%, NO 34%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1705517

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.