Military action against Iran ends on April 7, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing Oil +7.0% ↑, VIX -2.7% ↓, Gold -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
1% / 4%
Spread
2.20pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends on April 7, 2026?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 2.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Military action against Iran ends on April 7, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706397
This event has 9 active outcome markets. June 30: 70%, April 30: 31%, April 15: 12%.
Military action against Iran ends on April 7, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Apr 5, 2026
Current
3% YES (-0.9pp recent)
Apr 5, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+20.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this