Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Closes April 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$157K
Liquidity
$43K
Bid / Ask
50% / 51%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
51%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Trump announces end of military operations against…
April
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
65% YES
Mar 7, 2026
Trough probability
40% YES — lowest in period
Mar 20, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Mar 16, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
47%
Mar 20, 2026
Biggest move: +15.5pp
60% → 75%
Mar 9, 2026
Peak probability
78% YES — highest in period
Mar 10, 2026
Current
55% YES (-2.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.0%
EV per $ wagered
-1.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?" at 51% YES / 49% NO. In the last 24 hours, $157K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 51%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 51%, NO 49%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1517835
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Venue Divergence
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Event Cluster
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