Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$258K
Liquidity
$65K
Bid / Ask
14% / 15%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Trump announces end of military operations against…
April
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
71% YES
Mar 2, 2026
Trough probability
8% YES — lowest in period
Mar 20, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Mar 3, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
57%
Mar 9, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
45%
Mar 10, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
53%
Mar 11, 2026
Biggest move: +28.0pp
30% → 57%
Mar 9, 2026
Current
13% YES (-1.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-3.4%
EV per $ wagered
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $258K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1466575
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.