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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 1?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 1?

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES
95%NO

Volume 24h

$41K

Liquidity

$28K

Bid / Ask

5% / 6%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-57.5pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 1?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $41K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1717414

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

7% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Biggest move: +9.3pp

6% → 16%

Apr 1, 2026

Peak probability

16% YES — highest in period

Apr 1, 2026

Current

4% YES (-2.0pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 5%99%
Buy YES@ 5¢
Edge

+6.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+6.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this