ForecastMind
Markets/Hawks vs. Magic
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Hawks vs. Magic

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

61%YES
40%NO

Volume 24h

$527K

Liquidity

$288K

Bid / Ask

60% / 61%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

61%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Hawks vs. Magic" at 61% YES / 39% NO. In the last 24 hours, $527K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 61%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Hawks vs. Magic." Prediction market snapshot: YES 61%, NO 39%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1730078

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. Hawks vs. Magic: 61%, Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 232.5: 52%, Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 233.5: 51%.

Hawks vs. Magic

61%
Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 232.5
52%
Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 233.5
51%
Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 234.5
47%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

61% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

61% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 61%99%
Buy YES@ 61¢
Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.3%
½ Kelly0.6%
Buy NO@ 40¢

-1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this