Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.0pp below current market price; market at 10% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -1.2% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$14K
Liquidity
$27K
Bid / Ask
9% / 9%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
9%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1731344
This event has 4 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 40%, June 30, 2026: 24%, April 30, 2026: 13%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~17%.
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by
Topic Intelligence
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-2.3%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this