Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Closes June 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.0pp below current market price; market at 24% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -1.2% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$28K
Liquidity
$34K
Bid / Ask
23% / 25%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
24%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?" at 25% YES / 75% NO. In the last 24 hours, $28K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 24%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 25%, NO 75%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1731345
This event has 4 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 40%, June 30, 2026: 25%, April 30, 2026: 9%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~21%.
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this