Will Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Closes April 19, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$680
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
42% / 47%
Spread
5.00pp
Expert Signal
45%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt…
2026
18 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?" at 45% YES / 55% NO. In the last 24 hours, $680 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 45%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 19, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Will Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 45%, NO 55%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1737537
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