ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Pelicans vs. Kings
Share on X

Pelicans vs. Kings

Closed April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

82%YES
19%NO

Volume 24h

$897K

Liquidity

$71K

Bid / Ask

82% / 83%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

68%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Pelicans vs. Kings" at 82% YES / 18% NO. In the last 24 hours, $897K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 68%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Pelicans vs. Kings." Prediction market snapshot: YES 82%, NO 18%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1760821

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. Pelicans vs. Kings: 82%, Pelicans vs. Kings: 1H O/U 120.5: 50%, Pelicans vs. Kings: O/U 232.5: 39%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

67% YES

Apr 3, 2026

Current

68% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 4, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 82%99%
Buy YES@ 82¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.7%
½ Kelly1.4%
Buy NO@ 19¢

-2.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this