Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$33K
Liquidity
$31K
Bid / Ask
17% / 18%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
18%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $33K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1807912
This event has 3 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 18%, June 30, 2026: 8%, June 30, 2026: 5%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~70%.
any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
20% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Current
18% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Apr 2, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.9%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this