Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
Closed December 31, 2025
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$19K
Liquidity
$55K
Bid / Ask
4% / 5%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2025.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/610256
This event has 3 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 18%, June 30, 2026: 8%, June 30, 2026: 5%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~70%.
Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+9.9%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this