Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in April?
Closes April 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$196
Liquidity
$562
Bid / Ask
68% / 72%
Spread
4.00pp
Expert Signal
70%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in April?" at 70% YES / 30% NO. In the last 24 hours, $196 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 70%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 70%, NO 30%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1808733
This event has 7 active outcome markets. Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in Apr: 70%, Trump say "Trump Account" in April?: 56%, Trump say "Trump Tower" or "Trump Towers" in : 44%.
Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in April?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-1.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this