Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on April 1?
Closes April 2, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$74K
Liquidity
$23K
Bid / Ask
10% / 11%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on April 1?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $74K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813909
This event has 10 active outcome markets. Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5?: 60%, price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,0: 43%, Bitcoin reach $70,000 on April 1?: 12%.
Bitcoin reach $70,000 on April 1?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
29% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Biggest move: -22.0pp
32% → 10%
Apr 1, 2026
Peak probability
37% YES — highest in period
Apr 1, 2026
Current
6% YES (-2.5pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+4.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this