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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 1?
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Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 1?

Closes April 2, 2026

Polymarket Price

23%YES
78%NO

Volume 24h

$31K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

21% / 24%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

23%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 1?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $31K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 23%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813912

Outcome Markets7 markets

This event has 7 active outcome markets. Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 1?: 23%, Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 1?: 7%, Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 1?: 2%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~66%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+10.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

14% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Biggest move: +24.0pp

11% → 35%

Apr 1, 2026

Peak probability

35% YES — highest in period

Apr 1, 2026

Current

24% YES (-5.0pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 23%99%
Buy YES@ 23¢
Edge

+2.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 78¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+2.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this