Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 1?
Closes April 2, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$24K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
4% / 9%
Spread
4.90pp
Expert Signal
7%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 1?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $24K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 4.90 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813913
This event has 7 active outcome markets. Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 1?: 28%, Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 1?: 7%, Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 1?: 2%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~61%.
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Biggest move: +5.4pp
5% → 10%
Apr 1, 2026
Peak probability
10% YES — highest in period
Apr 1, 2026
Current
7% YES (-1.8pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+4.5%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this