Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5)
Closes April 14, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$22K
Liquidity
$54K
Bid / Ask
4% / 5%
Spread
0.50pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5)" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 14, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1818937
This event has 3 active outcome markets. Club Atlético de Madrid: 26%, Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5): 13%, Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5): 5%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~57%.
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+11.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this