ForecastMind
Markets/Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?
Share on X

Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$63K

Liquidity

$95K

Bid / Ask

2% / 3%

Spread

1.10pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $63K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1820098

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: 12%, April 30: 2%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~86%.

US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
12%

US withdraw from NATO by April 30?

2%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-0.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

3% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢
Edge

+29.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+29.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this