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Markets/Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
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Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

12%YES
88%NO

Volume 24h

$145K

Liquidity

$83K

Bid / Ask

12% / 12%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

12%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-2.3pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $145K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/665480

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. US withdraw from NATO before 2027?: 12%, April 30: 1%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~87%.

US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

12%
US withdraw from NATO by April 30?
1%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

14% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

12% YES (-0.7pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 12%99%
Buy YES@ 12¢

-1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 88¢
Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.6%
½ Kelly0.8%
Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this