ForecastMind
Markets/Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs

Closes April 17, 2026

Polymarket Price

38%YES
63%NO

Volume 24h

$723K

Liquidity

$47K

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs" at 38% YES / 62% NO. In the last 24 hours, $723K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 17, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs." Prediction market snapshot: YES 38%, NO 62%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1860403

Outcome Markets10 markets

This event has 10 active outcome markets. Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5): 100%, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: 38%, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5: 1%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+55.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

42% YES

Apr 10, 2026

Trough probability

34% YES — lowest in period

Apr 10, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

97%

Apr 10, 2026

Biggest move: +63.5pp

34% → 97%

Apr 10, 2026

Current

97% YES (+63.5pp recent)

Apr 10, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 38%99%
Buy YES@ 38¢
Edge

+1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 63¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this