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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 12?
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Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 12?

Closed April 12, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
39%FIS
−6ppvs market 45%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -6.2pp below current market price; market at 45% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -2.7% ↓, ETH -3.8% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -2.7% ↓, ETH -3.8% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓
-6.2pp
Live compute01:00 PM

Polymarket Price

45%YES
55%NO

Volume 24h

$7K

Liquidity

$16K

Bid / Ask

39% / 45%

Spread

6.00pp

Expert Signal

45%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 12?" at 45% YES / 55% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 45%. The bid-ask spread is 6.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 45%, NO 55%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879419

Outcome Markets8 markets

This event has 8 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,20: 50%, price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,30: 45%, price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,40: 1%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~3%.

price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April
50%

price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April

45%
price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April
1%
price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April
0%
price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 12?
0%
price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April
0%
price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April
0%
price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April
0%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-70.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

71% YES

Apr 12, 2026

Trough probability

0% YES — lowest in period

Apr 12, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

42%

Apr 12, 2026

Biggest move: -21.5pp

42% → 20%

Apr 12, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 12, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 45%99%
Buy YES@ 45¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 55¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this