Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12?
Closes April 13, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.2pp below current market price; market at 3% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -0.6% ↓, ETH -0.5% ↓, S&P +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$19K
Liquidity
$44K
Bid / Ask
3% / 3%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 13, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1885993
This event has 17 active outcome markets. Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?: 42%, Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 6-12?: 37%, Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?: 17%.
Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
4% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Current
3% YES (-0.6pp recent)
Apr 7, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-7.7%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this