ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)
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Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)

Closes April 7, 2026

Polymarket Price

43%YES
57%NO

Volume 24h

$89K

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

42% / 43%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

43%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $89K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1891183

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5): 55%, 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5): 53%, Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5): 51%.

Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)
55%
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)
53%
Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)
51%
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)
47%
Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)
46%

Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)

43%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

42% YES

Apr 6, 2026

Current

43% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Apr 6, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 43%99%
Buy YES@ 43¢
Edge

+1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 57¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this