ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)
Share on X

Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)

Closes April 7, 2026

Polymarket Price

55%YES
46%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

54% / 55%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

55%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)" at 55% YES / 45% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 55%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 55%, NO 45%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1894153

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5): 55%, 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5): 53%, Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5): 51%.

Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)

55%
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)
53%
Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)
51%
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)
47%
Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)
46%
Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)
43%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.0pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 55%99%
Buy YES@ 55¢
Edge

+0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 45¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this