ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 14?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 14?

Closed April 14, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
9%FIS
+3ppvs market 6%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +3.1pp above current market price; market at 6% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.8% ↑, ETH +1.0% ↑, S&P +0.5% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC +0.8% ↑, ETH +1.0% ↑, S&P +0.5% ↑
+3.1pp
Live compute01:54 PM

Polymarket Price

0%YES
100%NO

Volume 24h

$72K

Liquidity

$87K

Bid / Ask

3% / 4%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

5%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-5.1pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 14?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $72K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 14, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 14?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1908683

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,0: 78%, price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,0: 0%, price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,0: 0%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~22%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

26% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Trough probability

11% YES — lowest in period

Apr 7, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Apr 13, 2026

Biggest move: +23.0pp

21% → 44%

Apr 13, 2026

Peak probability

53% YES — highest in period

Apr 13, 2026

Current

25% YES (-3.5pp recent)

Apr 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this