Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 14?
Closed April 14, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +0.8pp above current market price; market at 71% may be underpriced with macro signals showing ETH +0.7% ↑, S&P +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$45K
Liquidity
$23K
Bid / Ask
72% / 73%
Spread
0.70pp
Expert Signal
71%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 14?" at 77% YES / 23% NO. In the last 24 hours, $45K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 71%. The bid-ask spread is 0.70 percentage points. The market closes on April 14, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 14?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 77%, NO 23%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1908685
This event has 6 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,0: 77%, price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,0: 3%, price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,0: 0%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~20%.
price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on Apri
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
26% YES
Apr 7, 2026
Trough probability
4% YES — lowest in period
Apr 13, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Apr 13, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
48%
Apr 14, 2026
Biggest move: +40.9pp
10% → 51%
Apr 13, 2026
Peak probability
71% YES — highest in period
Apr 14, 2026
Current
69% YES (-2.3pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
-1.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this