Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5)
Closes April 16, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$8K
Liquidity
$227K
Bid / Ask
50% / 50%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
50%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5)" at 50% YES / 50% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 50%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 16, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 50%, NO 50%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1920962
This event has 4 active outcome markets. Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime : 50%, Auger-Aliassime vs. Ruud: Match O/U 22.5: 50%, Auger-Aliassime vs. Ruud: Match O/U 21.5: 50%.
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
41% YES
Apr 9, 2026
Trough probability
1% YES — lowest in period
Apr 9, 2026
Biggest move: +49.5pp
1% → 50%
Apr 9, 2026
Peak probability
50% YES — highest in period
Apr 9, 2026
Current
50% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 9, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this