Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.3pp below current market price; market at 14% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -1.2% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓, Gold -0.6% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$73K
Liquidity
$45K
Bid / Ask
7% / 8%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
8%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $73K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1921802
This event has 3 active outcome markets. Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in: 48%, Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the St: 11%, Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium : 8%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~34%.
Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
11% YES
Apr 12, 2026
Current
10% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 12, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+6.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this