Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.0pp below current market price; market at 48% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -1.2% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$55K
Liquidity
$26K
Bid / Ask
47% / 49%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
48%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?" at 47% YES / 53% NO. In the last 24 hours, $55K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 48%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 47%, NO 53%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1921803
This event has 3 active outcome markets. Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in: 47%, Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the St: 11%, Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium : 9%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~35%.
Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
57% YES
Apr 12, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
48%
Apr 12, 2026
Biggest move: -10.0pp
57% → 48%
Apr 12, 2026
Current
47% YES (-1.5pp recent)
Apr 12, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this