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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Knicks (-5.5)
Share on X

Spread: Knicks (-5.5)

Closed April 9, 2026

Polymarket Price

47%YES
54%NO

Volume 24h

$84K

Liquidity

$369K

Bid / Ask

46% / 47%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

47%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Knicks (-5.5)" at 47% YES / 53% NO. In the last 24 hours, $84K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 47%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 9, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Spread: Knicks (-5.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 47%, NO 53%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1925394

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. Spread: Knicks (-3.5): 55%, Spread: Knicks (-4.5): 51%, 1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5): 50%.

Spread: Knicks (-3.5)
55%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5)
51%
1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5)
50%

Spread: Knicks (-5.5)

47%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+55.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

45% YES

Apr 9, 2026

Trough probability

38% YES — lowest in period

Apr 10, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

100%

Apr 10, 2026

Biggest move: +60.0pp

40% → 100%

Apr 10, 2026

Current

100% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Apr 10, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 47%99%
Buy YES@ 47¢
Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 53¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this