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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)
Share on X

Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)

Closed April 11, 2026

Polymarket Price

51%YES
50%NO

Volume 24h

$18K

Liquidity

$70K

Bid / Ask

50% / 51%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

51%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)" at 51% YES / 49% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 51%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 51%, NO 49%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1935832

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. Spread: Nuggets (-10.5): 56%, Spread: Nuggets (-11.5): 51%, Spread: Nuggets (-12.5): 47%.

Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)
56%

Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)

51%
Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)
47%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+50.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Apr 10, 2026

Trough probability

23% YES — lowest in period

Apr 11, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

28%

Apr 11, 2026

Biggest move: +51.0pp

32% → 83%

Apr 11, 2026

Current

100% YES (+17.5pp recent)

Apr 11, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 51%99%
Buy YES@ 51¢
Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 50¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this