Markets/US x Iran meeting by April 14, 2026?

US x Iran meeting by April 14, 2026?

Data as of Apr 10, 2026, 10:37 PM UTC

Closes April 14, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Medium confidence · 2 signals

94%FIS

−3ppvs market 97%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -2.7pp below current market price; market at 96% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -2.2% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓, Gold -0.4% ↓.

Signal breakdown

MacroOil -2.2% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓, Gold -0.4% ↓

-5.2pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Live compute09:14 PM

Polymarket Price

96%YES

4%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

94% / 99%

Spread

4.60pp

Expert Signal

97%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran meeting by April 14, 2026?" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 97%. The bid-ask spread is 4.60 percentage points. The market closes on April 14, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "US x Iran meeting by April 14, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1937465

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. June 30, 2026: 99%, May 31, 2026: 98%, June 15, 2026: 97%.

US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?

99%

US x Iran meeting by May 31, 2026?

98%