Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)
Closed April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$13K
Liquidity
$113
Bid / Ask
8% / 98%
Spread
89.80pp
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)" at 98% YES / 2% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 89.80 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 98%, NO 2%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1962108
This event has 10 active outcome markets. there be a run scored in the first inning?: H: 100%, Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5: 100%, Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5): 98%.
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
54% YES
Apr 12, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Apr 12, 2026
Biggest move: +25.5pp
50% → 75%
Apr 12, 2026
Current
75% YES (+25.5pp recent)
Apr 12, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
-20.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this