Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 26?

Market Price

89%YES

11%NO

FM Estimate

86%

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

2.2pp

Vol 24h$71K

Liquidity$28K

Bid / Ask85% / 86%

Spread1.00pp

ClosedApr 26, 2026

Macro fundamentals-2.2pp

low confidence · 1 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets27 markets

27 deadline markets. Combined YES = 1382% — 1282pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 25

100%

price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 25

100%

price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 26

89%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+10.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 26?" at 89% YES / 11% NO. In the last 24 hours, $71K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 89%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on April 26, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-26). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 26?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 89%, NO 11%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2023800