Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 28?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 28?

Market Price

13%YES

87%NO

FM Estimate

20%

Gap Signal

↑Underpriced

3.1pp

Vol 24h$11K

Liquidity$27K

Bid / Ask16% / 17%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesApr 28, 2026

Macro fundamentals+3.1pp

low confidence · 1 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets38 markets

38 deadline markets. Combined YES = 2204% — 2104pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 26

100%

price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 26

100%

price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 28

13%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-3.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 28?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on April 28, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-27). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 28?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2044478