Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3?

Market Price

67%YES

33%NO

FM Estimate

73%

Gap Signal

↑Underpriced

12.0pp

Vol 24h$10K

Liquidity$20K

Bid / Ask65% / 67%

Spread2.00pp

ClosedMay 3, 2026

News velocity+32.4pp

Macro fundamentals+0.4pp

medium confidence · 2 signals

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+52.0pp

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market's shift to 100% signifies a near-certain expectation that Bitcoin will exceed $78,000 by May 3, a prediction starkly contrasting with earlier expiry dates. The 50 percentage point surge in price momentum over the past seven days underscores a significant and recent recalibration of market sentiment towards this specific price target.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets38 markets

38 deadline markets. Combined YES = 2235% — 2135pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3?

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3

100%

price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3?

price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3

100%

price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3?

price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3

67%

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3?" at 67% YES / 33% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on May 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-03). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 67%, NO 33%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2086862