Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

FM Estimate

81%

Vol 24h$225K

Liquidity$0

Bid / Ask97% / 97%

Spread0.40pp

ClosedMay 3, 2026

Macro fundamentals+0.3pp

low confidence · 1 signals

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

+43.5pp

Why this matters

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

✦ Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets36 markets

36 deadline markets. Combined YES = 2016% — 1916pp excess suggests collective overpricing.