Markets/Iran closes its airspace by May 8?

Iran closes its airspace by May 8?

Market Price

13%YES

87%NO

FM Estimate

12%

Vol 24h$101K

Liquidity$285K

Bid / Ask12% / 14%

Spread2.00pp

ClosesMay 31, 2026

Macro fundamentals-2.7pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market holds significance as it reflects a 14% probability of Iran closing its airspace by May 8, a scenario potentially influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions and related news coverage. While oil prices have seen a recent decline, the VIX has slightly increased, suggesting a mixed but present undercurrent of market apprehension concerning regional stability.

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

2 deadline markets. Market implies ~52% chance none resolve YES.