Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Market Price
FM Estimate
34%low confidence · 2 signals
This market's relevance is amplified by the recent, significant 7 percentage point decline in its "YES" price to 36%, signaling a decreased probability of Iran closing its airspace by May 31. This movement occurs amidst prominent news coverage of the escalating conflict with Iran and its potential economic ramifications, alongside a notable 3.3% decrease in WTI oil prices.
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
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2 deadline markets. Market implies ~51% chance none resolve YES.
by May 31
Iran closes its airspace by May 31
Price History · 30 days
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Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Iran closes its airspace by May 31?" at 37% YES / 63% NO. In the last 24 hours, $23K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 34%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on May 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Iran closes its airspace by May 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 37%, NO 63%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2133405