Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Closes August 4, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced driven by USA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$164
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
51% / 54%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
53%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?" at 53% YES / 47% NO. In the last 24 hours, $164 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 53%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on August 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 53%, NO 47%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/599303
This event has 6 active outcome markets. Mallory McMorrow: 53%, Abdul El-Sayed: 30%, Haley Stevens: 15%.
Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Prima
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.0%
EV per $ wagered
-1.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this