Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Closes August 4, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing VIX +3.8% ↑, S&P +0.4% ↑, DXY -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$92
Liquidity
$23K
Bid / Ask
14% / 16%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
15%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?" at 15% YES / 85% NO. In the last 24 hours, $92 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 15%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on August 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 15%, NO 85%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/599304
This event has 7 active outcome markets. Mallory McMorrow: 53%, Abdul El-Sayed: 30%, Haley Stevens: 15%.
Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this