Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
Closes October 4, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.7pp below current market price; market at 80% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -4.0% ↓, S&P +1.2% ↑, DXY -0.1% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$213
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
79% / 80%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
80%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?" at 80% YES / 20% NO. In the last 24 hours, $213 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 80%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on October 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-15). "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 80%, NO 20%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/601922
This event has 5 active outcome markets. Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's preside: 88%, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil': 80%, Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presiden: 7%.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presiden
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-2.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this