Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
Closes October 4, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.4pp below current market price; market at 3% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -4.0% ↓, S&P +1.2% ↑, DXY -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$9K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
3% / 4%
Spread
1.50pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.50 percentage points. The market closes on October 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-15). "Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/601923
This event has 5 active outcome markets. Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's preside: 88%, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil': 80%, Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presiden: 7%.
Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Current
3% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 15, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-10.4%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this