Markets/China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Data as of Apr 13, 2026, 07:12 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

13%FIS

−1ppvs market 14%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -0.6pp below current market price; market at 14% may be overpriced driven by USA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]

-1.0pp

MacroUSD/CNY +0.067 ↑, S&P +0.2% ↑

-0.1pp

Live compute04:36 AM

Polymarket Price

14%YES

87%NO

Volume 24h

$10K

Liquidity

$114K

Bid / Ask

13% / 14%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677407

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. China x Philippines military clash before 202: 20%, China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: 14%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~67%.