Markets/China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Data as of Apr 13, 2026, 05:55 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

19%FIS

Markets appear correctly priced driven by USA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]

-1.0pp

MacroUSD/CNY +0.064 ↑, S&P +0.1% ↑, Oil -0.4% ↓

+0.5pp

Live compute05:55 AM

Polymarket Price

20%YES

81%NO

Volume 24h

$7K

Liquidity

$44K

Bid / Ask

19% / 20%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

20%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "China x Philippines military clash before 2027?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "China x Philippines military clash before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677408

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. China x Philippines military clash before 202: 20%, China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: 14%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~67%.