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Markets/Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
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Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

82%YES
18%NO
Vol 24h$549
Liquidity$10K
Bid / Ask79% / 83%
Spread4.00pp
ClosesMay 7, 2026

FM Estimate

79%

Market Price

82%
↑ Overpriced 2.9pp
Macro fundamentals-5.4pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
medium confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?" at 82% YES / 18% NO. In the last 24 hours, $549 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 82%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00pp. The market closes on May 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-17). "Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 82%, NO 18%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/922347