Markets/Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Market Price

50%YES

50%NO

FM Estimate

52%

Vol 24h$300

Liquidity$11K

Bid / Ask46% / 54%

Spread8.00pp

ClosesJun 23, 2026

Macro fundamentals+3.1pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

✦ Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee f: 50%, Oscar Romero be the Democratic Nominee for NY: 4%, Theo Chino-Tavarez be the Democratic Nominee : 1%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~44%.

Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

50%

Oscar Romero be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Theo Chino-Tavarez be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

No historical data yet

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

52%anchor

PredictIt

——

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?" at 50% YES / 50% NO. In the last 24 hours, $300 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 50%. The bid-ask spread is 8.00pp. The market closes on June 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-23). "Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 50%, NO 50%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/973439