Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Kings vs. Hawks
Closed March 28, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1.2M
Liquidity
$48K
Bid / Ask
4% / 5%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Kings vs. Hawks
13 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
13% YES
Mar 28, 2026
Biggest move: -15.0pp
18% → 3%
Mar 29, 2026
Current
3% YES (-15.0pp recent)
Mar 29, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+9.6%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Kings vs. Hawks" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.2M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on March 28, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Kings vs. Hawks." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1682609
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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