Markets/Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)

Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)

Data as of Mar 29, 2026, 12:28 PM UTC

Closes March 29, 2026

Polymarket Price

69%YES

32%NO

Volume 24h

$281K

Liquidity

$28K

Bid / Ask

72% / 75%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

69%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+20.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

37% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

56%

Mar 29, 2026

Biggest move: +18.0pp

39% → 56%

Mar 29, 2026

Current

56% YES (+18.0pp recent)

Mar 29, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 69%99%

Buy YES@ 69¢

Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.6%

½ Kelly0.8%

Buy NO@ 31¢

-1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)" at 69% YES / 31% NO. In the last 24 hours, $281K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 69%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 29, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 69%, NO 31%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1765562

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